Posts

For all the Pessimism, Things Look Much Better than in 2016

From my trend tracker.  In terms of the popular, national vote margin, Biden is doing much better than where we were in 2016. There's a lot of hand-wringing about how it looked like Hillary was running away with the race in 2016, and as it looks like Biden is way ahead now, that's a sure sign that he's going to lose.  Somehow.  To pick just a single number, consider the popular vote margin.  According to my model (remember, high quality polls only), Biden currently enjoys a lead of 9.4 points over Trump.  At this point in 2016, Hillary was 5.1 points ahead using the same selection criteria. It's even more striking to see how the trendiness look.  Biden has a wider lead now (before any post-convention polls) than Hillary did at any subsequent point in the 2016 cycle.If you'd like to look at this dynamically, I've written a little app.  It's nothing more than the state of my model (popular vote or win probability, for instance) as a function of time, compared …

A Short Critique of the 538 Electoral Model

How Inefficient will the Electoral College be this time Around?

10 Reasons Trump is Not Getting Reelected

On Misplaced Cynicism

State and National Polls are Telling Different Stories... but not in the way you'd think.

The Wisdom of Crowds