Predictions and Postdictions in the Philly Primaries!

Tuesday was Election Day here in Philadelphia, and as we're more or less a one party town, the primary essentially is the election.  I had the pleasure of working with 3 great first-time candidates: Tiffany Palmer (who ran successfully for judge), Jen Devor (who lost in a tough race for election commissioner), and Eryn Santamoor (who missed by a couple of spots in a 30-way race for city council at large).  Following the election, I have some gripes about the excessive influence of the party machine, but now's not the time.

I did some quantitative modeling and analysis for their campaigns throughout, but on election night, I set up a war room, and made real time predictions of the final outcomes.  And as with the midterms, my models were remarkably stable and converged very early on.  They were also surprisingly simple:
I looked at the total number of voters and relative historical turnout division by division (you may know divisions as "precincts").Looking at some h…

How Lazy are Voters?

It's Never too Early to think about 2020

We actually did pretty well in the Senate

What happened?

Is a Miss as Good as a Mile (in Senate Polling)?

A quick pitch for my house modeler

Shock Polls aren't really so Shocking

Less Stressful than the Needle

How many votes do you need to win?

Where's the Generic Ballot At?