How Inefficient will the Electoral College be this time Around?

Hang around on the internet for long enough, and you'll readarticle after panicked article, about how this time around, Trump could lose the popular vote by 10 million votes (or some other very large number) and still win the electoral college.  Could he?
Let's stipulate that the electoral college is bad and terrible, and it's still likely to benefit Trump this time around, but I'm going to put my marker out there that the fear-mongering about the electoral inefficiency are a bit overblown, and by and large, early indicators are the inefficiency is going to be less significant this time around than in 2016.  And I'm going to base this on data, not on simulations. You know the old expression: GIGO (garbage in, garbage out).
First, a couple of important definitions.  The tipping point state is the one where, if you listed the states in order of margin, it's the one that would give the Democrat their 270th electoral vote.  For example, from 2016:

10 Reasons Trump is Not Getting Reelected

On Misplaced Cynicism

State and National Polls are Telling Different Stories... but not in the way you'd think.

The Wisdom of Crowds

We're in Pretty Good Shape